Climate change is the number one risk in all geographic areas 

Geopolitical risks rank second, overtaking cyber and pandemic 

Sense of vulnerability to certain risks is increasing and the level of trust is deteriorating

Over the last year, economic and geopolitical challenges have added a new layer of uncertainty to the disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic and the climate crisis. Meanwhile, almost 70% of the general public believe that insurers will have an important role to play in mitigating future risks. At AXA, we are determined to play our full part.

I see this as the greatest risk that threatens us: the feeling of powerlessness. It is as true today as it has ever been that only action will enable us to meet the challenges we face. This requires, first and foremost, our ability to build consensus and to act collectively.

Find out the emerging trends in this video with Thomas Buberl, AXA Group CEO and Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media:

AXA Future Risks Report 2022 | English

The report finds that the main risks in the next five to ten years will relate to climate change, geopolitical tensions, cyber security risks and energy risks.

believe public authorities are well prepared to face the climate crisis

of experts

expect geopolitical tensions to spread around the world

consider shutdown of critical infrastructure & essential services as the main cyber risk

For the first time, experts in every continent put climate change as their top concern. In last year’s survey, it ranked top only in Europe. Also, for the first time, it is the top concern in the US for the general population. This suggests that the obvious global impacts of climate change on biodiversity, health and the economy can no longer be ignored. Three of the top four risks ranked by experts - climate change, geopolitical instability, and energy risks - have become more deeply interconnected in the last year. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical risks and energy risks have both shot up the rankings in this year’s survey. Like the impacts of climate change, the need to transition to low-carbon energy sources becomes ever more obvious. Meanwhile, worsening geopolitical tensions are raising doubts about the future ability to find global solutions for climate change. The need for a holistic approach to these three major risks is increasingly apparent.

Climate change, geopolitics and energy are forming a new nexus of risk

Concerns about economic risk have been growing over the past five years. In 2018, no economic risk featured in the experts’ top 10. Financial instability risks entered the top 10 first, followed by macro-economic risks. This year, monetary and fiscal policy risks enter the experts’ top 10 for the first time. However, experts’ opinion is fragmented on how quickly these risks are likely to manifest. Only 13% of experts believe the risk of financial instability is “already here” - one of the lowest scores for any risk in the sample - with the remaining respondents divided between those who believe it is emerging rapidly (46%) and slowly (41%). A similar pattern is visible on macro-economic risks, with 22% believing the risks are already with us, and respondents equally divided between rapid and slow emergence (39% each). Yet, experts believe we have less time to prepare for monetary and fiscal policy risks: 45% think these risks are rapidly emerging.

Economic risks are becoming more serious and fuelling social tensions

For the fifth year in a row, experts rank cyber risks in their top three. It is linked to geopolitical tensions: shutdowns of critical infrastructure and essential services are threats especially associated with state-sponsored attacks. With ever more of life dependent on technology, cybersecurity risks seem - like health - to be an enduring feature of the future risk landscape. In the wake of the pandemic, cyber risks look likely to become part of a “new normal” risk landscape alongside a wider range of health risks: the survey indicates that concern about pandemics is falling in many geographies, but also points to growing concerns about other aspects of health.

The “new normal” Cyber security risk

As geopolitical and economic risks add to health and climate worries, 89% of experts think people globally are more vulnerable than they were five years ago - up five percentage points on last year’s survey. Members of the public have become more likely to agree that they avoid taking risks in their daily life, even if this means giving up on some of their dreams. A majority of respondents say this even in the US - the land of the “American dream”. Their levels of trust in scientists, public authorities, and the private sector to guard against future global crises have fallen since last year’s study. People are more likely than last year to say problems should be solved at the local than the global level. Nonetheless, a plurality of respondents (49%) still think crises are best tackled globally. And a majority (69%) recognize the crucial role played by insurers in developing solutions for emerging risks.

People feel more risk averse amid rising vulnerability and erosion of trust

For the first time, experts in every continent put climate change as their top concern. In last year’s survey, it ranked top only in Europe. Also, for the first time, it is the top concern in the US for the general population. This suggests that the obvious global impacts of climate change on biodiversity, health and the economy can no longer be ignored. Three of the top four risks ranked by experts - climate change, geopolitical instability, and energy risks - have become more deeply interconnected in the last year. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical risks and energy risks have both shot up the rankings in this year’s survey. Like the impacts of climate change, the need to transition to low-carbon energy sources becomes ever more obvious. Meanwhile, worsening geopolitical tensions are raising doubts about the future ability to find global solutions for climate change. The need for a holistic approach to these three major risks is increasingly apparent.

Concerns about economic risk have been growing over the past five years. In 2018, no economic risk featured in the experts’ top 10. Financial instability risks entered the top 10 first, followed by macro-economic risks. This year, monetary and fiscal policy risks enter the experts’ top 10 for the first time. However, experts’ opinion is fragmented on how quickly these risks are likely to manifest. Only 13% of experts believe the risk of financial instability is “already here” - one of the lowest scores for any risk in the sample - with the remaining respondents divided between those who believe it is emerging rapidly (46%) and slowly (41%). A similar pattern is visible on macro-economic risks, with 22% believing the risks are already with us, and respondents equally divided between rapid and slow emergence (39% each). Yet, experts believe we have less time to prepare for monetary and fiscal policy risks: 45% think these risks are rapidly emerging.

For the fifth year in a row, experts rank cyber risks in their top three. It is linked to geopolitical tensions: shutdowns of critical infrastructure and essential services are threats especially associated with state-sponsored attacks. With ever more of life dependent on technology, cybersecurity risks seem - like health - to be an enduring feature of the future risk landscape. In the wake of the pandemic, cyber risks look likely to become part of a “new normal” risk landscape alongside a wider range of health risks: the survey indicates that concern about pandemics is falling in many geographies, but also points to growing concerns about other aspects of health.

As geopolitical and economic risks add to health and climate worries, 89% of experts think people globally are more vulnerable than they were five years ago - up five percentage points on last year’s survey. Members of the public have become more likely to agree that they avoid taking risks in their daily life, even if this means giving up on some of their dreams. A majority of respondents say this even in the US - the land of the “American dream”. Their levels of trust in scientists, public authorities, and the private sector to guard against future global crises have fallen since last year’s study. People are more likely than last year to say problems should be solved at the local than the global level. Nonetheless, a plurality of respondents (49%) still think crises are best tackled globally. And a majority (69%) recognize the crucial role played by insurers in developing solutions for emerging risks.

Click to discover the key findings of the report

The 2022 AXA Future Risk Report is a global study examining the emerging risks threatening our planet. For this ninth edition, 4,500 experts from over 50 countries and 20,000 respondents from the general public contributed to the survey. This report is produced in partnership with the IPSOS research institute and the geopolitical analysis consultancy Eurasia Group.

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AXA Future Risks Report 2022 - Climate change is becoming the number one concern around the world.pdf

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AXA today released the ninth edition of its Future Risks Report. For the first time, climate risk tops the list of experts' concerns in all regions of the world and becomes the main concern of the general public in the United States.

AXA Future Risks Report 2022: Climate change is becoming the number one concern around the world

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AXA Future Risks Report 2022

Climate change has become the number one concern around the world

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For the 9th year in a row, AXA has conducted its emerging risks survey in partnership with research institute IPSOS and geopolitical analysis consultancy Eurasia Group.

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AXA Future Risks Report 2022

Climate change has become the number one concern around the world

Click to discover the key findings of the report

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